Last Week in Bitcoin: The Hassett Put & Texas Holds 'Em

Markets abhor uncertainty, but they absolutely adore a credible rumor. After a precipitous 28% correction from the euphoric heights of October’s $126,000 all-time high, Bitcoin found its footing this week, reclaiming the psychological $90,000 level. The catalyst wasn't technical support or a sudden retail frenzy; rather, it was the whisper of a regime change at the Federal Reserve and a historic purchase from the Lone Star State. As the dust settles on a volatile November, the narrative is shifting from fear of a cycle top to positioning for the next liquidity injection.

Price Action: The Relief Rally

Bitcoin closes the week trading near $90,840, marking a 4.6% recovery from the local lows. The asset had been languishing in correction territory, searching for a floor after the steep drop from $126k. That floor appears to have been established near $83,000, a level where on-chain data indicates whale wallets (those holding >1,000 BTC) resumed accumulation. Smart money, it seems, viewed the -30% drawdown not as a funeral, but as a discount.

The Macro View: The “Hassett Put”

The week’s most potent accelerant is the surging speculation regarding the Federal Reserve Chairmanship. Prediction markets have aggressively priced in Kevin Hassett to replace Jerome Powell, with odds oscillating between 55% and 87% on platforms like Polymarket.

Why does the market care? Hassett is perceived as significantly more dovish and crypto-adjacent than the current orthodoxy. The mere prospect of his appointment has revived the “Fed Pivot” trade, with an 87% probability of a rate cut now priced in for later this month. If the “Greenspan Put” cushioned the equities market of the 90s, the “Hassett Put” is quickly becoming the safety net for risk assets in 2026.

Sovereign Adoption: The Lone Star Strategy

In a move that is numerically modest but symbolically massive, the State of Texas became the first U.S. state to execute a purchase for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Allocating an initial $5 million into the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Texas has formally validated the sovereign adoption thesis.

While $5 million is a rounding error on BlackRock's balance sheet, the signaling value is asymmetric. State officials have framed this as a precursor to a self-custody framework, effectively creating a blueprint for other jurisdictions—specifically Arizona and New Hampshire—to follow. It is one thing for a hedge fund to buy Bitcoin; it is quite another for a state treasury to do so.

The Mining Sector: Diversify or Die

While the spot price recovers, the engine room of the network is under significant strain. Hashprice—a measure of miner profitability—hit record lows this week, forcing a bifurcation in the industry. Efficient miners are surviving; the rest are capitulating.

• The AI Pivot: Major players like Bitfarms are accelerating their transition toward High-Performance Computing (HPC) and AI data centers to subsidize declining mining revenues.
• Regulatory Headwinds: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has reportedly opened an inquiry into Bitmain regarding supply chain security. For an industry already dealing with razor-thin margins, geopolitical friction is an unwelcome variable.

Institutional Flows: The Bleeding Stops

After four consecutive weeks of outflows, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned a corner. The week began with a $151 million exit on Monday but reversed sharply by Friday, netting $70 million in inflows.

Notably, the appetite for risk is broadening. While Bitcoin flows were choppy, ETFs for high-beta assets like Solana and XRP recorded consistent inflows. This suggests that institutions are not merely buying the dip on the market leader but are rotating capital further out on the risk curve in anticipation of a looser monetary environment.

Looking Ahead

The market has transitioned from “Fear” to a tenuous “Neutral.” The immediate focus now turns to the $93,500 resistance level (the 20-day moving average). A clean break above this line, supported by sustained ETF inflows, puts the psychological $100,000 barrier back in play before year-end. Conversely, failure to hold the $83,000 support would invalidate the current recovery thesis. For now, the bulls have the ball, and they likely have Kevin Hassett to thank for it.